Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 3.248393 3.855019 4.529824 5.334144 6.264653 7.305161 8.554571
2025-06-29 2.210704 2.980590 3.936107 5.200086 6.817890 8.807849 11.428099
2025-07-06 1.606397 2.419469 3.527779 5.127718 7.352630 10.307383 14.491912
2025-07-13 1.351816 2.234143 3.534014 5.548818 8.542884 12.766387 19.095490
2025-07-20 1.112571 2.001821 3.407357 5.728649 9.385350 14.820672 23.370068
2025-07-27 0.943853 1.834307 3.333519 5.952718 10.294676 17.047220 28.118255
2025-08-03 0.778200 1.629538 3.152417 5.958530 10.837959 18.751201 32.228943
2025-08-10 0.619619 1.397836 2.875895 5.745005 10.969755 19.789867 35.365270
2025-08-17 0.487065 1.183267 2.585932 5.450251 10.903400 20.468116 37.946266
2025-08-24 0.403838 1.050489 2.425562 5.365284 11.189297 21.757404 41.660274
2025-08-31 0.339226 0.942651 2.293853 5.310858 11.515674 23.136724 45.642023
2025-09-07 0.308529 0.907563 2.309520 5.557265 12.449765 25.704091 51.973577
2025-09-14 0.264528 0.829909 2.220392 5.576301 12.949665 27.545143 57.212455
2025-09-21 0.225811 0.756090 2.126669 5.571821 13.404036 29.352631 62.575604
2025-09-28 0.192168 0.686814 2.029961 5.544030 13.803533 31.089869 67.961725
2025-10-05 0.185494 0.696365 2.135705 6.014922 15.359166 35.312524 78.613600
2025-10-12 0.167939 0.666787 2.132165 6.215490 16.324501 38.397752 87.221681
2025-10-19 0.153915 0.644787 2.145078 6.459299 17.417636 41.848114 96.851445
2025-10-26 0.134008 0.596141 2.072209 6.466544 17.946567 44.126320 104.211121
2025-11-02 0.110572 0.526346 1.921349 6.237036 17.865670 45.049384 108.756877
2025-11-09 0.089050 0.455501 1.750323 5.919738 17.519258 45.334007 111.929726
2025-11-16 0.075858 0.413636 1.662794 5.828256 17.742378 46.944997 118.158215
2025-11-23 0.065237 0.378720 1.590479 5.769639 18.044165 48.764950 124.994939